A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
